20 October 2012
Unanswered Presidential Campaign Questions
With the emphasis on beauty contest-like questions, it is no wonder some questions aren’t answered. It may not be possible to answer some. For example, applying the same formula for who will vote when some are voting by mail may no longer be accurate. Given that the differences between registered voters and likely voters is so small, even a small change would make this practice likely to be irrelevant.
Is it still accurate to assume Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats?
Why are some major pollsters releasing information that is already old? They have new information but release it later. Sounds like a Hollywood way to do business, holding back until your existing program is sold. No one has come up with a formula to estimate how people with no land lines will vote. This time, pundits think the voters will for Democrats because such people are younger than the average electorate. Only long after the election will it be possible to make a serious estimate.
Most importantly, the media is assuming that people don’t care about content, only the message. What about the possibility that positions taken during debates gives either party a target for its relentless negative adds.